The scenarios above based on Computer Simulation of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak in the Philippines was published by the University of the Philippines (UP) earlier this month (April 2020), and it is a bit dated since it assumed that the Quarantine would be lifted by April 14, 2020.
However, I think the data would still be valid up to now, we just need to move the post Quarantine date from April 14, 2020 to May 1, 2020. Now from the Graphs we can see that:
* If NO QUARANTINE had been instituted, the number of infections would have gone very high, well beyond the Healthcare System Capacity of the Philippines.
* Instituting an ENHANCED COMMUNITY QUARANTINE (ECQ) showed that the number of infections would not rise beyond the Healthcare System Capacity of the Philippines.
* However, as we can see from the Graph, even with the ECQ in place, they anticipate that the number of infections/deaths will only plateau down to very low levels by around August 2020. Take note that the infections will NOT ZERO OUT yet by August 2020, it will only go down to a low level.
* Personally though, I do not think it is realistic for the Government to continue the ECQ up to August 2020, because not mentioned in the Study is the ECONOMIC IMPACT of the ECQ. The truth is that every week or month of ECQ is doing massive damage to our Economy. Some financial institutions are already warning of a Contraction of the Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because of the extension of the ECQ to April 30, 2020. If so, then how much more if it is extended up to August 2020?
* However, as we can see from the Graph again, if the ECQ is lifted to even a relaxed MODIFIED COMMUNITY QUARANTINE (MCQ), then expect the number of infections/deaths to rise, but still within the Healthcare System Capacity of the Philippines.
Now the Government is a real quandary: If it continues the ECQ until August 2020 to reduce to its minimal level the number of infections/deaths, then the economy could be ruined. But if they lift the ECQ to even an MCQ, the number of infections/deaths will go up.
And once the number of infections/deaths go up because of the MCQ, then expect the Opposition to take advantage of the situation and criticize the Administration.
So that is the real situation now, based on this simulation. Either we face economic ruin, or see more infections and deaths due to Covid-19.
I am not sure why the Government has not been highlighting this Scenario that much, but it is a grim scenario so that could be one reason they don’t want to talk about it. But these scenarios we will have to face soon as April 30, 2020 approaches.
I think the Government should be up front to the people though, be honest over the hard choices that need to be made. Hindi maiiwasan iyan, andiyan na iyan and it will not go away soon.
SOURCE: Preparing for a Post-ECQ Scenario: Analysis and Recommendations {Archived Link}
Check out my Links: https://linktr.ee/rhk111
* Instituting an ENHANCED COMMUNITY QUARANTINE (ECQ) showed that the number of infections would not rise beyond the Healthcare System Capacity of the Philippines.
* However, as we can see from the Graph, even with the ECQ in place, they anticipate that the number of infections/deaths will only plateau down to very low levels by around August 2020. Take note that the infections will NOT ZERO OUT yet by August 2020, it will only go down to a low level.
* Personally though, I do not think it is realistic for the Government to continue the ECQ up to August 2020, because not mentioned in the Study is the ECONOMIC IMPACT of the ECQ. The truth is that every week or month of ECQ is doing massive damage to our Economy. Some financial institutions are already warning of a Contraction of the Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because of the extension of the ECQ to April 30, 2020. If so, then how much more if it is extended up to August 2020?
* However, as we can see from the Graph again, if the ECQ is lifted to even a relaxed MODIFIED COMMUNITY QUARANTINE (MCQ), then expect the number of infections/deaths to rise, but still within the Healthcare System Capacity of the Philippines.
Now the Government is a real quandary: If it continues the ECQ until August 2020 to reduce to its minimal level the number of infections/deaths, then the economy could be ruined. But if they lift the ECQ to even an MCQ, the number of infections/deaths will go up.
And once the number of infections/deaths go up because of the MCQ, then expect the Opposition to take advantage of the situation and criticize the Administration.
So that is the real situation now, based on this simulation. Either we face economic ruin, or see more infections and deaths due to Covid-19.
I am not sure why the Government has not been highlighting this Scenario that much, but it is a grim scenario so that could be one reason they don’t want to talk about it. But these scenarios we will have to face soon as April 30, 2020 approaches.
I think the Government should be up front to the people though, be honest over the hard choices that need to be made. Hindi maiiwasan iyan, andiyan na iyan and it will not go away soon.
SOURCE: Preparing for a Post-ECQ Scenario: Analysis and Recommendations {Archived Link}
Check out my Links: https://linktr.ee/rhk111
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