Monday, April 20, 2020

Covid-19 Philippine Situation Analysis and Recommendations by UP – April 20, 2020

The University of the Philippines (UP) has just released their latest analysis and recommendations on the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak in the Philippines. To summarize the major points:

* The Time for the Number of Confirmed Covid-19 Infections to double in number has been extended from the previous 3 days to now only every 6 days. This means that the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) has been effective in preventing the spread of the virus.

* They now project that the Number of Confirmed Covid-19 Infections to be at least 9,000 cases by the end of the month (April 30, 2020).

* They are recommending the grouping of the Provinces in the Philippines into 4 types depending on the Probability of a Covid-19 outbreak, and what Quarantine Type to be implemented for each group:

+ Less than 80% - No Quarantine needed but Standard Precautions in place

+ More than 80% but less than 90% - General Community Quarantine (GCQ, probably a relaxed version of the Enhanced Community Quarantine we have now)

+ More than 90% but less than 99% - Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ, like what is in place all over the Country now)

+ More than 99% to 100% - Extreme Enhanced Community Quarantine (EECQ, probably as stricter version of the ECQ we have now)

* Of the 81 Provinces in the Philippines, 16 are recommended for at least an ECQ, and these are Aklan, Bataan, Batangas, Benguet, Bulacan, Cavite, Cebu, Davao del Sur, Laguna, Metro Manila, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Pangasinan, Quezon, Rizal and Tarlac.

I think these recommendations are good and will help ease the negative effects of the Quarantine on the Economy of the Philippines.

UP though did not show their projections on the number of Infections/Deaths due to Covid-19 if their recommendation is implemented, but I think it is inevitable, I expect a rise in such when this is adopted. Hopefully the rise won’t be much, but aside from the Infections/Deaths, we need to consider also the Economy.

#UniversityofthePhilippines #UP #Covid19PH #EnhancedCommunityQuarantine #ECQ #GroupCommunityQuarantine #GCQ #ExtremeEnhancedCommunityQuarantine #EECQ

SOURCE: Modified Community Quarantine beyond April 30: Analysis and Recommendations

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