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| Maps showing Hainan Island and China's occupied Reefs in the Spratlys Islands, Images taken from Google Maps and Wikimedia Commons |
In an Article written for the South China Morning Post (SCMP) by known Dilawan Supporters Alan and Raissa Robles, former Chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Emmanuel Bautista said that China will invade and seize control of the Philippines in case War between the United States (US) and China breaks out.
Note that it was AbNoy Aquino during his Term as President of the Philippines who appointed Bautista as AFP Chief back in 2013-2014. I think Bautista's Statements are a little bit too Pro-US and Anti-China, because he only focused on China and barely mentioned the US.
First of all we do still have a Mutual Defense Treat (MDT) with the US, and any attack on mainland Philippines will trigger that without a doubt. It is true that they abandoned the Philippines in Panatag Shoal back in 2012 against China, but I don’t think they can do the same again in the case of mainland Philippines without losing a lot of prestige and credibility with their other Allies.
Second, if you look at the Map (see above) and think about it, it is actually the US which needs the Philippines more than China in the South China Sea (SCS) simply because China already has territories in the SCS while the US does not.
Even without the Philippines, China already has Hainan Island and their occupied Reefs/Islands in the SCS which they could use to stage operations from. On the other hand, the US does NOT have any territories in the SCS of their own that they can do the same.
China has a occupied a total of 7 Reefs in the Spratlys Islands in the SCS all of which have extensive Artificial Constructions from which operations could be made from. These are Cuarteron, Fiery Cross, Gaven, Hughes, Johnson, Mischief and Subi Reefs.
China also has occupied 20 Islands in the Paracel Islands, and based on the Pictures that I saw, it seems 10 of them have extensive Facilities which operations could be made from.
An Article by the Rand Corp. that I posted last February 2020 talked about how without the Philippines, the US will have to stage its operations as far as Guam and Okinawa in case it goes to War with China over Taiwan and/or the SCS.
The US does have Bases in Japan and South Korea, but to reach the SCS they will have to pass near Chinese Territory where they could be within the range of China's Missile defenses.
So if the Philippines is such an important Strategic Location for the Americans, why did they abandon us against China in Panatag Shoal back in 2012? Why aren’t they giving us hundreds of millions of Dollars per Year in Military Assistance like they do to Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Israel?
It is because the US knows that they have powerful and influential Groups within Philippine Society itself which are much to their side, like the Dilawan Sections of the Philippine Press, for example. Because of that, they think they don’t have to exert as much effort to keep us allied to them, unlike with other Countries.
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